Earlier this year, I visited Disneyland Paris, and as I found myself with a little too much time to think while waiting for Toy Soldiers Parachute Drop, a spark of an idea hit me: I started tracking my actual wait times for each ride and comparing them to the estimated wait times posted by Disney.
I recorded the data across 26 rides in both Disneyland Park and Walt Disney Studios Park. My stopwatch started the second I entered the queue and stopped when I reached the ride boarding point. Here’s what I found.
Overall Performance
Out of the 26 rides:
- 10 rides (38.5%) had an actual wait time shorter than Disney’s estimate
- 16 rides (61.5%) had actual wait times longer than estimated
So, if you’re wondering whether to trust those posted wait times, the short answer is: expect to wait a little longer than advertised, especially on the more popular rides.
The “Short Wait” Sweet Spot
Disney tends to be more accurate (or conservative) with rides that have low estimated wait times (under 15 minutes). Examples:
- Flying Carpets Over Agrabah: Est. 5:00, Actual 00:16
- Disneyland Railroad: Est. 10:00, Actual 03:17
- It’s a Small World: Est. 5:00, Actual 03:18
That said, not all short wait rides are spot-on:
- Phantom Manor: Est. 5:00 → Actual 05:18
- Slinky Dog Zigzag Spin: Est. 5:00 → Actual 05:45
Still, these slight overruns feel minor, and in some cases, the wait felt even shorter than the timer suggested because of how quickly the line moved.
The Mid-to-Long Wait Struggle
Rides with estimated waits of 15+ minutes tend to be underestimated more often:
- Dumbo the Flying Elephant: Est. 15:00 → Actual 22:40
- Spider-Man W.E.B. Adventure: Est. 35:00 → Actual 41:35
- Tower of Terror: Est. 40:00 → Actual 47:19
- Toy Soldiers Parachute Drop: Est. 30:00 → Actual 50:37
These longer waits can definitely disrupt carefully planned itineraries—especially when they run over by 10 to 20 minutes or more.
Shortest vs Longest Actual Wait Times
Shortest Wait: Flying Carpets Over Agrabah — just 16 seconds vs. a 5-minute estimate.
Longest Wait: Toy Soldiers Parachute Drop — 50 minutes 37 seconds, exceeding the estimate by over 20 minutes.
That 16-second queue was a rare and glorious “walk-on” moment. The 50-minute wait, though? Not so much.
Disneyland Park vs. Walt Disney Studios Park
| Disneyland Park | Walt Disney Studios Park | |
| Total Rides Tracked | 16 | 10 |
| % Rides Under Estimate | 43.75% (7 rides) | 30% (3 rides) |
| % Rides Over Estimate | 56.25% (9 rides) | 70% (7 rides) |
| Average Estimated Wait | 14 min 41 sec | 25 min 30 sec |
| Average Actual Wait | 15 min 8 sec | 27 min 8 sec |
| Average Over (Actual – Est) | 27 seconds | 1 minute 38 seconds |
| Longest Actual Wait | Orbitron (32 min 27 sec) | Toy Soldiers Parachute Drop (50 min 37 sec) |
| Shortest Actual Wait | Disneyland Railroad (3 min 17 sec) | Flying Carpets Over Agrabah (16 sec) |
| Biggest % Over | Pirates of the Caribbean (233%) | Toy Soldiers Parachute Drop (68.7%) |
| Biggest % Under | Disneyland Railroad (-67.2%) | Flying Carpets Over Agrabah (-94.7%) |
| Notable “Guest Wins” | Peter Pan’s Flight (-46.4%) | Crush’s Coaster (-36.7%) |
Key Takeaways:
- Walt Disney Studios Park estimates are less accurate, with more frequent and larger overruns.
- Disneyland Park is closer to a 50/50 split between over and under — a more balanced experience.
- Studios Park has higher average wait times overall due to housing more high-demand thrill rides.
So… What Does All of This Mean?
At the end of the day, Disney’s posted wait times are just that – estimates. They can be fairly accurate, wildly optimistic, or occasionally a delightful surprise.
If the ride says under 15 minutes, you’ll often get on quickly – maybe even faster than expected. But for anything over 20–30 minutes, it’s safer to mentally prepare for a longer wait than what the board says.
And sometimes, it just comes down to timing and luck.
For instance, when we rode Flying Carpets Over Agrabah, we walked straight onto the ride — no queue whatsoever. On Cars Quatre Roues Rallye, we missed the previous group by one person and had to wait a whole cycle. It wouldn’t have took our wait time below the estimated wait time, but it definitely would have shaved off a few minutes!
Have you noticed rides taking way longer than estimated? Or had a walk-on surprise? Drop your stories in the comments – I’d love to hear how your wait times compared!
Steamboat Charlie 